American Entropy: Lebanon: Round 3 of 4 complete

13 June 2005

Lebanon: Round 3 of 4 complete

Let me quote what I was saying about Lebanon back in March

Those who think Lebanon is full of pro-West groups and that Syria is unwelcome there are greatly mistaken. The demographics of Lebanon contain sharp divisions in religion, between Christians (and other groups) and Shias.

It was very unclear to me why so many were trumpeting this revolution as a democratic reform. Sure the Syrians are out of Lebanon but Hezbollah remain and they are very popular. This revolution threw out old provisions to balance the government between ethnic, et cetera, groups. Now we have a pro-Syrian state that has Hezbollah owning a significant number (33 so far) of seats in the 128 seat parliament; a large increase from 12 it held before.

How did I come to this conclusion before the votes took place? I went to CIA World Factbook for Lebanon and looked up the divisions in Lebanon

Muslim 59.7% (Shi'a, Sunni, Druze, Isma'ilite, Alawite or Nusayri)

Christian 39% (Maronite Catholic, Melkite Catholic, Armenian Orthodox, Syrian Catholic, Armenian Catholic, Roman Catholic, Protestant)

Other 1.3% note: seventeen religious sects recognized

To catch you up on this:

Hariri wins Beirut
Hezbollah wins South | Juan Cole
Hezbollah wins 10 more | Pro-Syrian wins big

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