As we start the debate again, it's going to revert to a 'stay the course' camp and a bunch of different plans to move forward and/or to move out of Iraq. Much mud will be thrown.

Some things to keep in mind:

1) Petraeus hinted that rotating troops out of pacified areas and into the hot spots. Isn't this plan a microcosm of setting a timeline? Recall that we've recently cut troop levels in the North and yesterday hundreds of Iraqis were murdered there. Why sacrifice human life in a desperate attempt to score political points? And if your argument is that it won't be announced or communicated, my reply is that it doesn't have to be. It will be very visible and an asymmetrical force doesn't need much time to maneuver and redeploy.

2) The stay the course crowd will want to keep gambling American lives as they dig for ponies. In Iraq, our troops face an enemy that will not cower like congressional Democrats. Our stay the course crowd also faces and enemy, reality. In January of '06 a Pentagon report warned that our Military couldn't keep current troop levels (then 136,000) without adversely affecting the Military. The reports author warned that "the Army has become a 'thin green line' that could snap unless relief comes soon". That relief came in April when Secretary of Defense extended military tours of duty to 15 months, with an opening remaining to make it 18.

The truth is painfully clear. Our military might has been outmatched by mistaken ideology and arrogance. The opponents of the timeline that argued in favor of staying the course will see their micro-timelines go into effect as they struggle to maintain proper levels. Thus opening the opportunity for terrorist to carryout spectacular attacks like Tuesday's quadruple car bombing that killed hundreds--the worst attack since yet in Iraq. Additionally, the stay the course crowd who begged for an escalation in order to allow for political progress are going to have to witness their ebb flow away with no political progress to be seen.

Soon there will be no more reinforcements and one would assume that the stay the course crowd would have to succumb to reality, or--perhaps--join their depleted military. All the while, Americans continue to die. The debate is over, the surge cannot be maintained with time or troop levels sufficient "to break the back of the insurgency." It's high time to reassess the mission and put our troops efforts towards a more realistic end.

Labels: foreign policy, Iraq, surge