American Entropy

04 August 2004

The new poll from Zogby which was conducted as the DNC was in session last week, The results were encouraging although the poll ended before Kerry's acceptance speech. In the period between July 26th to August 2nd Kerry gained one state from the prior poll with Florida and West Virginia tipping to the left and Nevada countering that by leaning right.

Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Washington all have a 7.5% or higher lead over bush. With Nader receiving a "rough estimate" of 1% with the exception of New Hampshire where he has over 2% of the vote.

New Mexico, Missouri, Wisconsin, Tennessee, and Nevada are all very close (under 2% difference) this week.

The Electoral College with the non-battleground results of 2000 added up with the way the 16 states lean right now would give Kerry 318 to bush's 220. When you omit the close states, Kerry gets 280 to 215.

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