[UPDATE] From a few days ago
Seems that the Pentagon is now taking what they said (below) and adding a slice of reality to the equation.

'Nobody knows' when Iraqis will take over security, Myers says

Iraqi army and police forces now have the lead security role in eight to 10 areas of
Iraq, but it remains unclear when they'll be prepared to take over security for the entire country, the Pentagon's top military officer said Tuesday.

"It's going to take time; nobody knows," Gen. Richard Myers, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said during a Pentagon news conference. "It's event-driven. It's going to be driven by a lot of events."
...
Last March, Gen. John Abizaid, of U.S. Central Command, told Congress that he believed Iraqi forces would be able to take the lead role this year, but Gen. Peter Pace, vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs, told Congress two months later that only a "small number" of Iraq's 173,000 army and police troops were capable of battling terrorists on their own.

Myers named only two areas where Iraqis police and army had taken the lead in security - a portion of Baghdad and Diyala province in the south, a majority Shiite area where attacks on coalition forces have been rare since an uprising by radical cleric Muqtada al-Sadr was put down last year.

So were waiting for events, positive events... Meanwhile, Rummy says

Insurgency could get worse: Rumsfeld

"I think it's reasonable to expect that violence could, again, increase for a time, as it did during the last elections," Mr Rumsfeld said, looking ahead to a referendum on a new constitution in October and elections in December.
...
"As long as the Iraqi people persevere, the terrorists cannot win," he said.

Heh, how about providing some security? Hold your end of the bargain.

[original post: 8 Aug 2005]I'll clear this up. We will raise the level of troops for an "October referendum and a December election" in Iraq this fall. Then we will begin a withdrawal in the middle of next year (if things calm down... A lot). Why this is the milestone that brings peace, I don't know. But I hope...



This is a moving average of US KiA in Iraq March 2005 through July 2005. Nothing here indicates any calming in Iraq; possibly the situation is slowly getting worse if you look at the trend.