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    25 July 2006

    Shock and Awe, part 2

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    I few days ago I posed the question, why did the IDF bomb all of Lebanon, including civilian infrastructure that was in no way strategic, when the immediate threat was Hezbollah and their missile embankments?

    I think Israel took a page out of the US book and tried to "shock and awe" the Lebanese into submission for a variety of political goal. If so it has failed again. "This will be a disaster for Israel. Nasrallah will be seen in the world as someone who fired thousands of Katyushas on Israeli communities for weeks and came out unscathed." says Moshe Arens is worried. The man who was Three term defense minister for Israel. If you would have asked anyone who knows anything, they would probably laugh at the idea that Hezbollah would be able to target Israel unabated for 14 days. Had the Israeli military targeted the actual targets in this campaign, Hezbollah's military strength might be all but gone and, most importantly, not firing at Israel. The above link goes into detail about whether or not this criticism if justified, it says that this was not planed in advance. How could this situation not have been planed for? Anyone buying that?

    From Hezbollah's view, the Israeli attack was a surprise. They didn't even exclusively bomb Hezbollah and they were caught off guard? Imagine if the Israeli forces had taken out the rocket launch pads? This war would be completely different if not over. They would have been able to severely weaken Hezbollah and opened the door for a UN or NATO backed Lebanese force with a government in Beirut that still - you know - roads, factories, ... If that avenue failed, then take out the Hezbollah positions in Beirut. (note: I realize that bridges and other connections to Iran and Syria are strategic, but there is a line that was crossed here.)

    But instead we have a prolonged engagement in the region with rockets and missiles going both ways and the tacit approval by the US to keep it up for another two weeks. It is things like this that create blowback for Western nations. Picture it now, somewhere in the Muslim world there's a terrorist being born.

    Posted by Geoff

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