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    28 August 2006

    Ernesto

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    From Dr. Masters:
    Ernesto is a more significant threat to the Carolinas

    While much of the focus of attention has deservedly been on Ernesto's impact on Florida, I believe the best chance of Ernesto hitting the U.S. as a Category 2 or 3 hurricane will come in the Carolinas. The GFDL model has Ernesto as a borderline Category 1 or 2 hurricane with a pressure of 975 mb Thursday night upon landfall in South Carolina. The GFS, UKMET, and Canadian models predict that Ernesto will stall off the Carolina coast, as the trough of low pressure drawing it northeastwards accelerates away. High pressure will then build in, forcing Ernesto back to the west towards the Carolina coast. If this happens, Ernesto will have plenty of time over the warm Gulf Stream, and could easily reach Category 2 or 3 strength before making landfall in the Carolinas. The NOGAPS model depicts a similar scenario, but predicts Ernest will stall further north, then move west, threatening the Mid-Atlantic states.

    Visit Brians Blog for more on Ernesto and SC (for you local-yokals).

    [UPDATE] "I will be honest, I fear this thing could stall around us...and really give us a major flooding situation. It is a classic setup for such." - Brian Goode

    Posted by Geoff

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