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    06 October 2006

    Well, well, well. Maybe a change of course isn't a bad idea after all

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    Chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee John Warner (R-VA): "I assure you, in two or three months, if this thing hasn't come to fruition and if this level of violence is not under control and this government able to function, I think it's a responsibility of our government internally to determine: Is there a change of course that we should take?" ... "And I wouldn't take off the table any option at this time."

    Well, shoot! A change of course? Where have I heard that before?

    Tim chimes in, pointing out that this "emboldens the terrorists and evildoers." I agree, this Democrat is obviously a traitor and buying into the enemy's propaganda... umm... oh.

    Col. Lang adds his $.02 speaking from Virginia, Warner's home state.
    John Warner is my senator and I have always respected him greatly. I continue to do so. In my view he has labored mightily to keep the ship of state afloat in spite of the Utopian nonsense that has dominated the Bush Administration. He has done so in spite of the disrespectful way that Rumsfeld and company have treated his opinions and nominations of people for important jobs, for example, Secretary of the Army.

    For him to say that the Maliki government has 90 days to get control of the situation or the United States should reconsider it options is a major step. The bomb throwers may not think it is a big deal, but it is. He says that "no option should be off the table."
    ...
    So far, we have been following a policy that envisions revolutionary change in Iraq and the rest of the Middle East leading to a Utopian and Earthly Paradise of the sort fantasized by Frum and Perle in their egregious book, "The End of Evil." The military strategy we have been following was inflicted on the armed forces by the Bush Administration in pursuit of that goal. Large forces were not thought necessary because Iraq, like the rest of the Middle East, was thought by the Bush Administration to be a "pile of tinder" awaiting only a match in order to burst into revolutionary flames. That did not happen. Instead the various "centrifugal" forces of tribal, and sectarian Iraq are tearing the country apart while at the same time protesting the authenticity of their "Iraqiness."

    Briefly. Remember the tactics Saddam had to use to keep the country in check. That alone is indicative of the quagmire we're in. One we mistook as a "slam-dunk."
    The game is actually over in Iraq. It has been decided in the streets and its outcome is symbolized by the piles of tortured corpses "discovered" each day by the same police who may well have been complicit in the "drillings" and shootings of the previous night.

    Iraq is going to be partitioned. This may be either de facto or de jure but it will be partitioned.

    I could have told you that in 2003.

    Pat opines on what this partition will look like:
    What will the partitioned Iraq look like?

    -A Kurdish region either completely or nearly independent with massive oil assets and the city of Kirkuk. Will Turkey accept that? Ah. That should be the subject of creative diplomacy on all sides.

    -A "rump" state of Iraq extending from (but not necessarily including) Baghdad to the Kuwait border. Wealthy in oil, dominated by the Shia Arabs and friendly to Iran, it may be impossible for this state to maintain its capital in Baghdad. So far, its security forces show no sign of being able to control the situation there.

    -An insurgent "redoubt area" dominated by Sunni Arabs and international jihadis will cover all of what is now called the "Sunni Triangle" and perhaps much of Baghdad as well. This "land of insolence" will be poverty stricken but supported by many states and individuals in the Sunni Islamic world as a bulwark against further expansion of the area of Shia triumphalism. The idea has been "floated" of an economic compact between these three successor entities which would provide the Sunni Arabs with considerable oil revenue. This idea underestimates the actual hatred among these groups, but, nevertheless, such an accord should also be the subject of creative diplomacy.

    A recognition that this partition of Iraq has now become inevitable and beyond the ability of the United States to prevent is a pre-condition for the adoption of a "reality based" policy which can deal with the vital issue of American relations with the pieces of Iraq. Equally important are the issues of relations among the states which surround, and influence the tri-partite Mesopotamia of the future.

    I'll say it here again, we need a change of course. This will only happen when we change the leadership or the apperatus that enables this leadership to ignore reality. Till that day, we'll continue to see unpleasant fatality metrics from Iraq, metrics that are not reported out of glee, but out of concern for my friends, and your famlies and friends.

    Posted by Geoff

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