Back in August I highlighted an op-ed that explored a strategy meant for the Cold War that could be applied usefully to our current War on Terrorism. The op-ed author was Nick Thompson from Wired's Danger Room and the Cold war strategy (featured in the popular X-Article) is now known tho be the work of George 'X' Kennan. I should reiterate here once again that this this op-ed, the article I'm going to mention briefly, this post or the post from August is advocating a "wait them out" strategy but rather a strategy that uses inherent weaknesses of extremist ideology against them rather than using policies that strengthen their ranks and confirm their propaganda.

This brings us to the 'return' of this policy prescription; this time in next months Foreign Affairs journal (via the WSJ). The author, the centrist Brookings Institutions senior US foreign policy wonk, Philip H. Gordon argues (much like Thompson and Kennan; summarized by WSJ's Robin Moroney)

...Islamic extremists will lose the way the U.S.S.R. did, with their ideology and tactics discredited and their erstwhile supporters deserting them. Mr. Gordon says this will occur as a result of disgust at Islamic militants’ use of violence against other Muslims, the economic failures of extreme Islamic regimes and a fear in the Islamic world, evidenced in polls, of having al Qaeda-led governments.
...
Focusing on completely eradicating terrorism rather than fostering its slow demise would drag the U.S. into precisely the costly wars abroad that Osama bin Laden wants the U.S. to fight. Mr. bin Laden and his ilk are unlikely to win in the long term in any case, says Mr. Gordon, but the war in Iraq will prolong the conflict as an effective recruiting tool for al Qaeda. The U.S. should instead focus on exploiting extremist Islam’s weak points as an ideology, using diplomacy, economic development and imprisoning terrorist leaders to bring about Islamic terrorism’s slow death.

Sound, rational, logical strategy the presidential contenders should consider and a market improvement to the neocon destabilization and paranoia campaign. Of course if your platform is running on the coattails of 9/11 then you might surround yourself with discredited pseudo-scholars. Right Mr. Giuliani?

Labels: al Qaeda, counter terrorism, foreign affairs, foreign policy, FP, Osama bin Laden, terrorism, UBL

If your browser is open right now then you likely have at least one headline on your homepage or favorite website hinting at an alleged video from the still free Usama bin Laden (UBL). This video, if it comes out, will coincide with the 6^th anniversary of the 11 September 2001 terrorist attacks on NY, DC and a failed attack which ended in a deadly plane crash in rural PA. Here are some thoughts on the rational of this event--if it does indeed happen, but still relevant if it doesn't--from the point of view of a man like UBL and his al Qaeda movement at two levels.

+ This is at one level, a propaganda ploy for the global jihadist movement.

+ For western audiences it has a very different motive. UBL benefits from our occupation of Iraq despite the lack of popularity of al Qaeda in Iraq. Our continued presence there validates his statements and fills his ranks. Therefore UBL's intent is to maintain the status quo there (much like US war supporters, but for different reasons). UBL knows how politics work in America and that his face on TV will cause the various noise machines to begin calling for a continued, unconditional presence in Iraq. He knows the current debate that is building steam in DC and nationwide regards the future of our presence there. He "knows" God gave him the gift of our occupation of Iraq for his continued war on humanity. This presence of ours in Iraq is supposedly to fight UBLs al Qaeda, at least partially. So UBL benefits from this in numerous ways: He keeps a major recruiting tool operational. He keeps targets close by and an active training ground functioning. He keeps his rational and rhetoric valid. And all the while, UBL keeps safe in Afghanistan, Pakistan or wherever he is while the American eye (and military might) focuses on Iraq and the morass we're struggling with presently.

And if this video doesn't surface, the facts still remain.

You can thank the 'stay the course' crowd for that.

Labels: conservative, Iraq, Republican, terrorism, UBL