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    26 September 2006

    Declassified NIE does not fall in line with Administration logic

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    The declassified summary of the April NIE on Iraq and terrorist networks (.pdf), which I've just read, indicates that the Iraq war has empowered the terrorists and made our post-9/11 world more insecure. This is not what the administration and its faithful have said. Quoting Tony Snow, "...one thing that the reports do not say is that war in Iraq has made terrorism worse."

    However, key excerpts from the summary indicate otherwise. But before we look at some key portions of the April NIE summary it's important to place this in context. Before Iraq we got a summary of the NIE on Iraqi WMD capabilities and programs. We know that what was presented in the executive summary was contradicted in the full document. In short the intel was picked. Now I'm not claiming that they would do or did this again and if they did I'm sure we'll hear about it soon. This country is far less accepting of warmongers than it was in 2002. So if this is the best they can do, as far as fixing the debate in their favor, then Iraq has been a tremendous vice for us in the GWoT.

    Some quotes from the document that proves Bush/Administration logic as flawed.
    We assess that the Iraq jihad is shaping a new generation of terrorist leaders and operatives..."

    The Iraq conflict has become the "cause celebre" for jihadists, breeding a deep
    resentment of US involvement in the Muslim world and cultivating supporters for
    the global jihadist movement.
    We assess that the underlying factors fueling the spread of the movement outweigh its
    vulnerabilities and are likely to do so for the duration of the timeframe of this Estimate.

    This summary creates the image of Iraq being a vice in the GWoT, period. At the very least, it seeks to state how much worse it's going to be the longer we stay there, and -- even worse -- how bad it's going to be once we lose. This document is a testament to the need for a new approach and the only way that will happen is with new leadership.

    I'm sure everyone will have their own opinions of this, that's what the comments are for.

    Posted by Geoff

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